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Monday, June 24, 2024

How do hurricanes get their names?

Plus: How do we avoid 'crying wolf' in our forecasts?

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How do hurricanes get their names?

Before the 1950s, tropical storms and hurricanes were usually named after they happened. Forecasters learned that wasn't the best way to prepare people for incoming storms and it wasn't until the 1970s that storms in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic Basin started getting names.

Most people don't realize that the names are not random and are named through a strict procedure by an international committee. They are also chosen years in advance and are on a rotating list. 

Last week we saw the formation of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm: Tropical Storm Alberto. It kicked off a list of 21 predetermined storm names this year that features Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie and William. 

Want to learn how the names are chosen? Check out my story to learn how and what happens if we run out of names.

Photo of Ryan Nickerson

Ryan Nickerson, Weather Reporter

ryan.nickerson@houstonchronicle.com

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Justin's Five Day Fit Check

The 713 Weather Radar fit check for 6-24-24

Photo by: Ken Ellis

This will be a textbook week of Houston's summer weather with hot and humid afternoons, highs generally in the mid-90s, and even a few days late in the week in the upper 90s. Heat index values, or what the temperature feels like, will be in excess of 105 degrees for much of this week. Some cooling relief may come from an isolated afternoon or early evening storm, but there shouldn't be any days this week with widespread storms. 

So, keep an umbrella handy this week but prepare for a hot one. Also, Tuesday is Pride Night at Minute Maid Park!


The 713 Weather Radar word of the week for 6-24-24. 

Generally, it is the vertical transport of heat and moisture by movement in the atmosphere, especially by updrafts and downdrafts in an unstable atmosphere. Thunderstorms can be a form of convection.


Somewhere to go

The Menil Collection, which has been closed for renovations since February, reopens Sept. 22.

Photo by: Kevin Keim / Kevin Keim

Anytime this week would be a good time to go to the Menil Collection. Along with observing world-class art, the sudden blast of cold, dry air will provide much-needed relief from the humid and severe heat expected all week.

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Something to see

The 713 Weather Radar graphic for 6-24-24.

Photo by: Roberto Villalpando

Houston started this year by recording the city's sixth-wettest January ever. Since then, the city has logged about 36 inches of rainfall so far, which is about a foot above normal for the year to date. The flatness in the chart indicates trace amounts or no rain. Figures are from Bush Intercontinental Airport, the city's official climate observation site.

Source: National Weather Service


Photo of Roberto

Ask an editor

How do you avoid 'crying wolf' in weather coverage?

One of the occupational hazards of weather reporting is when forecasts miss the mark, for good or ill, you can be accused of sensationalism or being overly dramatic. But our daily mission is to tell you what the science tells us.

Strict professional ethics and guidelines forbid exaggeration or obfuscation, and our careful and deliberate meteorologists apply the rigors of the scientific method to their forecasts.

Forecasts, however flawed, are probabilities, not predictions. They are determined by previous weather observations under similar conditions, our current understanding of thermodynamics and physics, and simulating scenarios through computer-based forecast models. 

Think of a neighborhood bus stop: You know a bus arrives regularly, but you never know exactly how many people will get off the bus when it arrives. Still, after observing the bus hourly, daily, and yearly, you can go from ballpark guesses to more precise estimates of how many people will get off at particular times on certain days. 

That's basically how forecasting works. Forecasting is a science, but because Mother Nature's involved, it's also a bit of an art.


Weather wonk trivia

The Saffir-Simpson Scale classifies hurricane-strength tropical cyclones into five categories based on maximum sustained wind speed. At what speed do sustained winds have to reach before being an official hurricane?

A) 38 mph

B) 74 mph

C) 96 mph

D) 111 mph


Meet the Team

Houston Chronicle Weather Team: Ryan Nickerson, Weather Reporter; Justin Ballard, Meteorologist; Roberto Villalpando, Texas Weather Science Editor. 

The 713 Weather Radar newsletter is fueled by reporting from meteorologist Justin Ballard and reporter Ryan Nickerson. Texas Weather Science Editor Roberto Villalpando edits this newsletter. 

You can reach out to any of them by emailing them directly at firstname.lastname@houstonchronicle.com or by replying to this email.

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