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Dade Phelan's bad math problem
Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan may not be as doomed as it might first appear.
Sure, the Beaumont Republican was pushed into a runoff primary election last week, and that has historically been bad for incumbents.
Since 2014, just 27 percent of Republican incumbents forced into runoffs in Texas Legislature races have been re-elected. Add in both Republicans and Democrats, and the number climbs to 35 percent with just six of the 17 incumbents pushed into runoffs winning re-election.
But maybe the better news for Phelan and his campaign team is the recent results in 2022, in which three of the four incumbents forced into runoffs ended up winning.
To be sure, Phelan has headwinds that no Republican House Speaker in Texas history has ever had. Former President Donald Trump and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton have both endorsed businessman David Covey over Phelan. In addition, Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who runs the Texas Senate, has been trying to help defeat Phelan after the two have absolutely warred against each these last few years over a number of issues. Paxton's grudge is even more personal. Phelan not only allowed the House to vote to impeach Paxton over corruption charges, but has vociferously defended the action time and again.
While the odds are against Phelan, he has advantages most incumbents don't have because he is the leader of the Texas House. He has both a higher profile and more resources to do battle in the runoff than your typical state legislator.
"This runoff is not just another race, it's the frontline of the battle for the soul of our district," Phelan said after the initial primary election.
It all backs up what my Texas Take podcast co-host Scott Braddock said during a speech he and I gave before the Greater Houston Pachyderm Club. He said while the numbers aren't great, people are getting ahead of themselves if they think it means Phelan is a goner. There's a lot of campaigning between now and the May 28 runoff election.
Who's up, who's down
Up: Joe Biden.
It sounds more like Republicans are giving up on the idea of impeaching the president. U.S. Rep. Troy Nehls, R-Fort Bend County, said Republicans have made a good case for impeaching Biden, but it may never happen. "I don't think we have the will to impeach Joe Biden," Nehls told Fox News Digital. "We just don't. We've got a two-seat majority. You've got some guys in these tough districts that don't want to alienate maybe independents or moderates."
Down: Dade Phelan.
The Texas House Speaker from Beaumont is trying to do something that few Republicans have succeeded in doing over the last 20 years: win a runoff election as an incumbent. Since 2014, just 27 percent of Republican state lawmakers pushed into a runoff election have been able to hold onto their seats. It's not impossible, but Phelan is fighting some tough odds.
What do you think? Hit reply and let me know.
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