Convenience Big Store: In Uvalde, advocacy groups are fracturing

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Election Tuesdays

It's the last edition of Election Tuesdays before early voting starts! So, we asked Cal Jillson, a politics professor at Southern Methodist University, what you need to know before casting a ballot.

Q: What are the top issues right now for both parties?

A: The Republicans are trying to get voters to care about the border and law and order, which they see as closely connected, and the economy and inflation, which obviously are closely connected as well. Those two issues, Republicans think, are cutting strong for them, and there is polling that suggests that's true. Democrats are talking about abortion, guns, and trying to combat the idea, particularly in Texas, that their policies would be bad for jobs, particularly in the valley, and particularly in oil and gas.

Q: Some of those issues, especially abortion and guns, have faded from the public eye. What do you make of those?

A: The election cycle, for many months, looked like it was leaning strongly in the Republicans direction. And then when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, with the Dobbs decision, there was a big surge among Democrats. That brought them back to a straight-up even competition with the Republicans across the country. And that has faded a little bit. So Democrats are better off than they were six months ago, but not as well off as they were six weeks ago.

Q: What do you think voters should keep in mind as they are getting ready to cast a ballot?

A: I think that voters need to take a deep breath and think about the candidates of both parties and recognize that much of what they hear on the campaign at this stage is overly dramatic. It's overstated. The Republicans will say that the Democrats are for open borders, and for abortion all the way to birth. Neither of those is true. Democrats will say of Republicans that they favor outlawing abortion nationally and allowing gun sales to 18 year olds with no limitations. And those are largely not true, either.

Q: Democrats always hope this will be the year they turn Texas blue. Do you think this is their year? What conditions would need to be present for Democrats to win?

A: In 2018, Democrats picked up 12 seats in the Texas House, two in the Texas Senate, two in the U.S. House delegation — so that's a pretty good year for them. And they thought that that would continue into 2020. It didn't. They picked up nothing in 2020, and 2022 feels more like 2020 than like 2018. It doesn't look, given the recent redistricting, that Democrats are going to pick up much if anything in the Texas Legislature or in the U.S. House delegation from Texas. And it looks as if the Republican slate statewide will win, but they'll win by something like 7 or 8 (points) at the top, 3 or 4 (points at the bottom).

One last thing…

"On one hand, I see the value in saying, 'Here's a tool you can have in case of potential threats.' But I think we need to be very cautious about crossing the line of do no harm to the point where we are creating more anxiety."

— Kenneth S. Trump, a national school security consultant, on Texas public schools distributing DNA and fingerprint identification kits for K-8 students. Parents can use the kits to store their child's DNA in case of an emergency, such as a school shooting.