Convenience Big Store: Early voting starts Tuesday and the stakes are high in the GOP primary for Senate.

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Happy Thursday, and welcome to another edition of Texas Elections 2026. Here's where we begin the final lap of the first leg of the long relay race called the 2026 midterm elections. Have questions? Hit reply, and I'll do my best to get you answers.

One race to watch that might not be decided in the March 3 primary

Early voting for the 2026 Texas primaries starts Tuesday, but signs suggest that one of the state's marquee races of Round One in the midterms won't be decided once all of the votes are cast and counted on March 3.

The hotly contested Republican race for U.S. Senate features three top-tier contenders, and that makes it a high hill to climb for one of them to nail down the outright majority and avoid a runoff.

How the field is shaping up toward the homestretch: A poll out Monday from the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs reinforces the months-long narrative that Texas Attorney Ken Paxton is leading the field, with four-term incumbent John Cornyn and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston battling for second place, and a second chance at gaining the nomination.

The Trump factor: Overall, the president's approval rating in the Hobby Poll was not particularly strong. But he still appears to hold sway among Texas Republicans. Trump has not stated a preference, at least not yet, in the Senate primary. He acknowledges that it would be a tough call.

"My problem is that I'm friendly with all of them. So those are the hard ones," Trump told reporters recently.

But some GOP voters would likely listen if Trump does weigh in. In fact, 55% said they'd vote for the Trump-backed candidate, even if it meant chucking their own preferred choice. On the other hand, nearly one in 10 Republicans said a Trump endorsement would persuade them to vote for whoever the other candidate was.

That aside, all three top GOP Senate candidates have made clear to the president that they'd welcome his thumb on the scale to help them.

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John C. Moritz, Chief Politics Reporter

jmoritz@statesman.com

🗓 Key Dates To Know

Feb. 17: The first day of early voting.
Feb 20: Last day to apply for absentee ballot (received, not postmarked)

🗳 Remember, you can vote in either party's primary, but not both.

Local Corner

Texas Voter Guide: Explore races and candidates in the March 3 primary election

Texas voters will pick party nominees for a host of high-profile elections on March 3. Our Voter Guide allows you to filter by party and enter your address to see only the races and measures that you'll be voting on.

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