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November 07, 2025

What are the Texans' playoff chances?

Plus: Fantasy studs and duds

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Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans walks off the field after losing to the Denver Broncos 18-15 in an NFL football game at NRG Stadium in Houston, Sunday, Nov. 2, 2025.

Have the Texans dug too deep a hole?

The Houston Texans have dug a hole so deep this season that they've left no room for error. 

The Texans are 3-5, in ninth-place in the AFC standings, and two games behind the Jaguars for the seventh and final playoff spot. They are 1½ games behind the Chiefs, who are off this week but play the Broncos when they return next week. 

A win this week against the Jaguars brings the Texans within one game of their division rival. 

But a loss will all but guarantee they won't make the playoffs.

According to the NY Times' playoff simulator, the Texans currently have a 2% chance to make the playoffs. But if they lose Sunday, that percentage drops to below 1%. If they win, their chances increase to 4%. 

It's not just that the Texans' remaining schedule gets tougher. They have games against the Bills, Chiefs and Chargers still left. The issue is the teams ahead of them. Though the Chiefs (5-4) are in eighth place, they have the most experience and have won three of their last four games. 

The Chargers (6-3), who are in sixth-place have won their last three games. And the Bills (6-2), who are in fifth-place, have shown no signs of slowing down either. 

The Texans need to win these next four games against the Jaguars, Titans, Bills and Chiefs and have some help from others. 

But as good as that sounds, it's easier said than done. 

The hole Houston dug during the first half of the season just feels too deep. 

Photo of Jonathan Alexander

Jonathan M. Alexander, Texans beat reporter

jonathan.alexander@houstonchronicle.com

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Fantasy studs and duds

Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz (86) catches a 47-yard pass from Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud during the first half of an NFL football game at NRG Stadium in Houston, Sunday, Nov. 2, 2025.

Photo by: Jason Fochtman, Houston Chronicle

Start

TE Dalton Schultz

Why: He leads the Texans with 38 receptions and is second...

⚠️ Houston Chronicle susbscribers get access to Fantasy Studs and Duds, where I give you tips on who to start, who to sit and who to watch on your fantasy football team. Subscribe now to get next week's tips.


Texans Trivia!

Monday's question: Janice McNair was the fourth person inducted into the Texans' Ring of Honor. Who was the first?

Answer: Bob McNair. Shoutout to Michael Brooke for being the first one to answer this correctly!

The next Trivia question will be in Friday's newsletter. 

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Podcast

🎧 Texans Insider

This week's episode of Texans Insider will post Saturday morning at 5:30 a.m. 

Remember to send me your questions to answer on air.

🎧 You can find this podcast on any podcast platform, from Apple and Spotify to our landing page

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Top Stories

Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz (86) reacts after catching a 47-yard pass from quarterback C.J. Stroud during the first half of an NFL football game at NRG Stadium in Houston, Sunday, Nov. 2, 2025.

Photo by: Jason Fochtman, Houston Chronicle

Start or sit?

Pick up Dalton Schultz if he's still a free agent in your Fantasy League and start him. Here's why. 

Read More

  • Bad blood: AFC South rivalry between Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars grows more intense with recent history and playoff implications. Read More
  • Rookie woes: Jaylin Noel was on the rise after solid games against Seattle and San Francisco but that all changed against Denver. Read More
  • Texans in volleyball business: The Houston franchise in League One Volleyball is being purchased by Lone Star Sports and Entertainment, a sister company of the Texans Read More

JMA's Prediction

Houston Texans Davis Mills is shown during practice in Houston Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025.

Photo by: Melissa Phillip, Houston Chronicle

While I wouldn't be shocked if Davis Mills led them to victory, I think it'll be tough without C.J. Stroud.

Prediction: Jaguars 24 Texans 20 

Sidenote: Check out my story on Mills, which will post tomorrow morning on our website. 


One last thing ...

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