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Projecting UH's path to its first national championship

Welcome to another edition of the Cougar Confidential, NCAA Tournament edition. After wrapping up the Big 12 tournament title, the University of Houston, the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region, opens the postseason Thursday in Wichita, Kan.

Can the Cougars win that elusive first men's basketball national title? This is certainly coach Kelvin Sampson's best chance.

Here's my round-by-round predictions for UH in the NCAA Tournament:

First round: SIU Edwardsville

J'Wan Roberts is expected back after missing the last two games of the Big 12 tournament with a sprained right ankle. The Cougars won't need him much in the NCAA opener. Defense and the recent hot shooting of Emanuel Sharp will be enough as the Cougars cruise to an easy 75-48 win.

Round of 32: Gonzaga

How's this for a second-round matchup? This could be among the best games of the entire tournament, pitting college basketball's winningest programs over the past seven-plus seasons. Gonzaga enters the tournament having won 11 of the past 13 games after dropping back-to-back games to Santa Clara and Oregon State. These are not the Zags of old. Houston ends Gonzaga's streak of nine consecutive Sweet 16 appearances with a 69-60 win.

Sweet 16: Purdue

Purdue will play in its backyard at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. It's reminiscent of the 2023 second round, when the Cougars played Auburn in Birmingham, Ala. After surviving a tough second-round game against Clemson, the Boilermakers run out of gas as UH pulls away in the second half for a 72-65 win.

Elite Eight: Tennessee

A classic matchup between legendary coaches who are close friends (UH's Kelvin Sampson and the Vols' Rick Barnes) and teams that play a physical style. This one will feel like a 12-round heavyweight fight. UH delivers the knockout, 74-68, to advance to the Final Four for the first time since 2021.

Final Four (national semifinals): Duke

A rematch of the 2024 Sweet 16, when UH's All-America point guard Jamal Shead went down with a sprained ankle in the first half in a 54-51 loss to the Blue Devils. No upset this time as the Cougars rely on experience and limit Cooper Flagg in a 59-56 win.

National championship game: Florida

Florida enters the championship game on a roll after surviving a loaded West Region and beating Michigan State (South Region winner) in the other national semifinal. The Gators will be trouble on the boards and can put up points. But how many times have we heard that? The Cougars set off a River Walk celebration with a 74-71 overtime win as Kelvin Sampson cuts down the nets and caps his Hall of Fame career with a national title and win No. 800.

Joseph Duarte, University of Houston beat reporter

joseph.duarte@houstonchronicle.com

Looking Ahead

EVANSVILLE, IN - MARCH 08: SIU-Edwardsville Cougars Guard Ray'Sean Taylor (3) dribbles during the Ohio Valley Tournament Championship basketball game between the Southeast Missouri Hawks and the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars on March 8, 2025, at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Photo by: Michael Allio, Icon Sportswire Via Getty Images

UH, the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region, opens the NCAA Tournament against 16-seed SIU-Edwardsville at 1 p.m. Thursday (TBS) at Intrust Bank Arena in Wichita, Kan. A win would set up a second-round matchup against either No. 8 Gonzaga or No. 9 Georgia.

Big 12 Stock Report

Image of two arrows, one points up, the other points down. Text reads: Who's up, who's down.

Photo by: Susan Barber

Trending Up

Emanuel Sharp: Houston's 3-point specialist is heating up at just the right time. Sharp was named the Most Outstanding Player of the Big 12 tournament after scoring 19, 26 and 17 in three games. He shot 52% (12-of-23) from 3-point range.

Quannas White: UH's soon-to-be ex associate head coach was formally introduced Monday as the head coach at Louisiana. It's a well-deserved promotion for White, who should make an immediate impact in Lafayette.

Trending Down

NCAA selection committee: North Carolina in, West Virginia out? "Bubba (Cunningham), you've got some 'splaining to do!" The North Carolina AD apparently left the room when the Tar Heels (single Quad 1 win) were up for discussion but gave a lame reason for why the Mountaineers were left out (Tucker DeVries' injury). West Virginia was in 111 of 111 brackets on Bracket Matrix.

Iowa State injuries: While point guard Tamin Lipsey (groin) is expected back for the Cyclones' NCAA Tournament opener against Lipscomb, second-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert will miss the postseason with a muscle strain, according to coach T.J. Otzelberger. Once a trendy Final Four pick, the Cyclones enter the postseason with four losses in the past seven games.

Quote of the Day

“

Never take it for granted. That's No. 1. It's hard to make the NCAA Tournament.

– UH coach Kelvin Sampson on the Cougars making the NCAA Tournament for the seventh time in his 11 seasons

”

Stat of the Day

6: Final Four appearances for UH. Each time the Cougars have advanced out of the Midwest Region

🏀 Cougar Mailbag

Send me your questions: Follow me on X, formerly Twitter, hit reply to this email or share your questions here to be a part of this week's mailbag. Ask me anything!

Q: Should I jump into the San Antonio River when we win? — Brian M. via X

JD: For legal purposes, I cannot advise you one way or another on any post-title celebrations. I would suggest you check the city of San Antonio's schedule for when they drain the River Walk. You could drive up Interstate 35 and leap into the San Marcos River.

Q: Have J'Wan Roberts and Terrance Arceneaux had full practices? — @excusetheping via X

JD: The team took Monday off and will depart for Wichita on Tuesday afternoon. Arceneaux, who has been bothered by pain in his surgically repaired right Achilles, has not missed any game/practice time. Roberts, who suffered a sprained right ankle in Thursday's Big 12 quarterfinal against Colorado, was scheduled for an individual workout Monday. At the Selection Sunday watch party, Roberts said he would be ready for the NCAA Tournament opener.

Q: Odds on J'Wan Roberts being held out one more week? — Timothy Z via X

JD: Zero. Barring a setback, Roberts will play Thursday against SIU-Edwardsville.

Q: Will Kelvin Sampson wear a tie during any March Madness games? If so, how many points are scored before he rips it off? — @forumla1remix via X

JD: No, Sampson will not wear a tie. He's become fond of the casual Jordan polo and golf pants look. Although things could change if the Cougars reach the national title game. Or maybe not. The Cougars are a bit superstitious when it comes to game (jersey) attire, even for the coaching staff.

Poll Tracker

UH remained No. 2 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll released Monday.

A look at how some of the 59-member media panel voted:

Highest: 1 (Brenna Greene, KOIN-TV in Portland, Ore.; Dave Preston, WTOP in Washington, D.C.; Stephen Thompson, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette; Brice Cherry, Waco Tribune-Herald; Jon Wilner, San Jose Mercury News; Steve Greenberg, Chicago Sun-Times).

Lowest: 4 (Adam Lichtenstein, South Florida Sun-Sentinel; Johnny Congdon, ABC 33/40 in Birmingham, Ala.; Louis Fernandez, WRAL-TV in Raleigh, N.C.; Toyloy Brown III, Baton Rouge [La.] Advocate).

Biggest change: Dylan Sinn of the Fort Wayne (Ind.) Journal Gazette moved the Cougars up from eighth to third on his ballot.