Convenience Big Store: What to make of UH's NCAA Tournament bracket projections?

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An early glance ahead to Selection Sunday and where UH stands

Happy New Year!

Now that the calendar has turned to 2025, we can officially begin the countdown to Selection Sunday, which is March 16.

What should we make of some of the most popular NCAA Tournament bracket projections? While most consider the Cougars to currently be on the 4-seed line, the jury is still out.

Let's look at the Cougars' résumé:

NET ranking: 4 (entering Monday night)
KenPom: 3
Quad 1 record: 0-3
Quad 2 record: 4-0
Quad 3 record: 3-0
Quad 4 record: 4-0

Two of UH's losses this season are against Auburn and Alabama, both currently ranked in the top five and legitimate candidates for No. 1 seeds. Since suffering three losses (the other to San Diego State) in November, UH has won seven straight games.

The lack of Quadrant 1 wins should not be alarming. That will sort itself out if the Cougars handle business in Big 12 play. Based on the latest NET rankings, all but one of the final 17 league games with either be a Q1 or Q2 game. That includes a possible 12 Q1 games. The only outlier is a Q3 home game against Oklahoma State.

"I think we are on a pretty good trajectory," coach Kelvin Sampson said recently about the state of his team.

Here's a look at some of the current projections:

• ESPN has the Cougars as the No. 4 seed in the South Region, playing 13-seed McNeese State in the first round. That would set up a likely second-round date with No. 5 Memphis, with Auburn, the tournament's No, 1 overall seed, waiting in the Sweet 16.

• CBS Sports: Jerry Palm isn't buying the Cougars — yet. However, Palm did move up the Cougars from a 10-seed to a 7-seed in his latest bracket projection that came out Monday. A first-round East Region matchup against No. 10 Indiana would potentially be followed by a rematch against No. 2 Alabama. And if the Cougars survive to the second weekend, UConn or Iowa State could be waiting. Ouch.

• On3 has the Cougars as the 3-seed in the South Region, facing 14-seed Northern Colorado, the automatic qualifier from the Big Sky, in the first round.

• Fox Sports' Mike DeCourcy has UH as the 5-seed in the West Region, playing 12-seed Furman of the Southern Conference in the opening round.

The bracketologists do agree on one thing: Auburn, Tennessee, Iowa State and Duke are the consensus picks for No. 1 seeds.

Joseph Duarte, University of Houston beat reporter

joseph.duarte@houstonchronicle.com

Looking Ahead

MANHATTAN, KS - FEBRUARY 04: A general view of Bramlage Coliseum between the Kansas State Wildcats and Texas Longhorns on February 4, 2023 in Manhattan, Kansas. (Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images)

Photo by: Peter G. Aiken, Getty Images

UH visits the Octagon of Doom to play Kansas State on Saturday. It's the Cougars' first trip for a game in Manhattan, Kan., since a 73-71 win against the Wildcats on Jan. 23, 1971.

Big 12 Stock Report

Image of two arrows, one points up, the other points down. Text reads: Who's up, who's down.

Photo by: Susan Barber

Trending Up

UH defense: This is the Berkshire Hathaway of college basketball stocks. The Cougars are well on their way to leading the nation in field-goal percentage defense for a fifth straight season and scoring defense for the third straight season.

Caleb Love: Arizona is on a season-high, four-game winning streak thanks to the senior guard, who is averaging 23 points and shooting nearly 50% in the last four games, including a season-high 33 points against TCU.

West Virginia: The Mountaineers pulled off the biggest win in the opening week of Big 12 play, topping then-No. 7 Kansas 62-61 for their first win in 12 trips to Allen Fieldhouse.

Trending Down

Baylor: Can anyone figure out the Bears? Baylor stayed close in a four-point loss to UConn early in the season but that has been completely throttled in ranked losses to Gonzaga (38 points), Tennessee (17) and Iowa State (19).

Utah: It's been a rough start for one of the Big 12's newest teams as the Utes had 25- and 28-point losses to Baylor and Texas Tech, respectively.

Quote of the Day

“

I surrendered to the culture and embraced it.

– Sixth-year forward J'Wan Roberts at the Kelvin Sampson Radio Show on learning from veteran players when he first arrived at UH

”

Stat of the Day

3: UH has three home winning streaks of 30 games or more under Kelvin Sampson: 37 (Dec. 19, 2019 to Feb. 12, 2022), 33 (Nov. 10, 2017 to March 2, 2019) and 31 (Jan. 28, 2023 to present).

🏀 Cougar Mailbag

Send me your questions: Follow me on X, formerly Twitter, hit reply to this email or share your questions here to be a part of this week's mailbag. Ask me anything!

Q: What's the latest on Emanuel Sharp's foot injury? Is there any reason for concern? — Michael S.

JD: Sharp hasn't missed any playing time because of the right foot injury, which coach Kelvin Sampson recently described as "black, blue and nasty." At Sunday's practice, Sharp, who was coming off an 18-point outing against BYU, said the foot was "feeling great" and has responded to treatment. He's been wearing a brace on the foot the past three games. "It's not terrible," he said.

Poll Tracker

UH moves up two spots to 12th in the Associated Press Top 25 poll released Monday.

A look at how some of the 60-member media panel voted:

Highest: 6 (Jeff Nieburg, Philadelphia Inquirer; Rick Bozich, WDRB-TV, Louisville, Ky.).

Lowest: Not ranked (Chris Murray, Nevada Sports Net; Mark Berman, Roanoke Times).

Biggest change: Seth Davis of CBS moved the Cougars up from 22nd to 16th and Brice Cherry of the Waco Tribune-Herald from 18th to 12th on their ballots.