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Ready for Election Day
With Election Day upon us in a matter of hours, here are some key very Texas things I will be watching closely for as results start rolling in.
Trump's Margin: It would be a mega-upset if Donald Trump doesn't win Texas. But the question for me is how much closer does it get here in Texas. Remember in 2012, Mitt Romney won Texas by 16 percentage points. In 2016, Trump won it by 9. And then in 2020, he carried it by just 5.6 percent. That was the 9th closest race in the nation. If Trump's margin of victory over Kamala Harris falls below 4 percent, you can bet both national parties will be taking note and wondering how much they may have to invest in the state in 2028.
Cruz on the Blue Spine: In his first campaign for the U.S. Senate in 2012, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz won this collection of 22 counties from Laredo to Dallas-Fort Worth by over 200,000 votes. But in 2018, he lost them by over 400,000 votes as he narrowly won re-election. If he loses this stretch by closer to 500,000 votes, he's in for a long night. Austin, San Antonio and Dallas used to be the blue dots on the map. But in recent years, counties like Hays, Williamson and even Collin have shifted blue, changing the dynamics for Cruz and other Republicans.
Ohio & Montana: Sure, just a tad north of the Red River, but seriously what happens in these two states has a big impact on the state. If Republicans flip Senate seats in those two states, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn will no longer be in the running to be the Republican leader. He could also become the Senate Majority Leader, one of the most powerful political positions in the nation's capital. He's got legitimate competition for the post, but he's a real contender. A Texan hasn't held that position since Lyndon Baines Johnson left the post in 1960. All LBJ did was make sure NASA made Houston its Mission Control Center.
A Closer House: It's no secret Bexar County has gotten bluer with each election. Now, they have two Texas House seats currently held by Republicans that could flip to the Democrats. Combine that with another competitive Texas House race in Cameron County and Democrats have a chance to trim the GOP advantage in the House. Republicans are not likely to lose control of the majority, but a few lost seats certainly could complicate their math on big votes, like on school vouchers.
Musk Money: Elon Musk, who now lives in Texas, has spent at least $119 million on a super PAC to help elect Donald Trump. Is this a signal for things to come from Musk in Texas and U.S. politics? The money from America PAC has largely gone into getting out the vote in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If Trump wins those states, Musk is going to have even more pull if Trump wins the White House again.
Programming Note: On Tuesday, we are delaying the release of the Texas Take a little later than usual to provide updated election results as they come in. Be sure to check out HoustonChronicle.com and ExpressNews.com for all the Texas results throughout the evening.
 | Jeremy Wallace, Texas politics reporter |
Who's up, who's down
The U.S. Justice Department is sending election monitors to 86 jurisdictions in 27 states to monitor voting on Election Day. And you knew Texas would be on the list, right? But not everyone is welcoming them. "It's just a way that they're trying to gin up their vote, to get people concerned and their voters out to vote," Harris County GOP Chairwoman Cindy Siegel said during a news conference on Monday.
Down: Early Voters.
While 9.1 million voters have already voted early in person or by mail, overall early voting is down slightly from the last presidential election in 2020 when 9.7 million voted before Election Day. Worth noting that Texas had more weeks of early voting then and more people voted by mail to avoid exposure to COVID-19.
What do you think? Hit reply and let me know.
What else is going on in Texas
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Pick of the day
Photo by: Abbey Lossing
Still haven't voted? In the Houston area, check out our voter guide for everything you need to know about races up and down the ballot. In San Antonio area, check out our guide here.
What else I'm reading
Canvassers for Elon Musk's America PAC say they were fired and stranded in Michigan after they talked to WIRED about their working conditions. The publication originally reported that dozens of workers were tricked, threatened and driven around in seatless U-Haul vans.
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