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Cruz vs Allred
Like with most debates, partisans on both sides of the Ted Cruz vs. Colin Allred divide declared a dominating victory for their guy on Tuesday.
But for me, both men scored some key points they needed and also left some stuff on the table that they might regret down the stretch. Here's my take.
Best line for Cruz: "Understand at home Colin Allred is Kamala Harris. Their records are the same."
Why it was important: Internal polling by U.S. Senate Republicans in October showed that 16% of voters in Texas didn't have either a favorable or unfavorable view of Allred. That's a lot of voters who still haven't made up their minds on Allred. By linking Allred to Harris over and over during the debate, Cruz, seeking a third term in the U.S. Senate, is hoping Allred's unfavorable ratings with Texas voters catch up to those of Harris. The Texas Politics Project showed 46% of Texas voters had an unfavorable view of Harris, while Allred's were less than 40% in their poll and the Senate Republican poll. In short, he needs Harris and Allred to be the same.
Missed chance: Cruz, 53, had a lot to say about the border, but I fully expected he would do more to tie Allred to the record border crossing numbers over the last three years and focus on crimes allegedly committed by migrants, specifically the murder of 12-year-old Jocelyn Nungaray in Houston. Cruz brought her name up quickly, but didn't give it nearly the attention he's given it in TV ads, press conferences and in his speeches.
What's next: Given he has made four TV ads about transgender children playing in girls' sports, you knew Cruz was going to spend a lot of energy on this issue and he did. While that issue may not move swing voters as much as some have suggested, it does resonate with a base of GOP support that Cruz needs to show up in big numbers. He'll be able to use those exchanges during the debate as he travels west this week to Amarillo, Lubbock and Midland where he posted huge numbers in 2018 to save his re-election.
Best line for Allred: "Understand when Sen. Cruz says he's pro-life, he doesn't mean yours."
Why it was important: No issue has been more important for Allred, 41, to get suburban women to vote with him. His closing ads feature Kate Cox, a woman who said she had to flee the state to get medical care because of the state's strict abortion laws. During the debate, he looked at Cruz and said it wasn't pro-life to deny women health care or force rape victims to carry their attacker's baby. Allred repeated if elected he'll restore a woman's right to choose and make Roe V. Wade the law of the land.
Missed Chance: Cruz unloaded a bevy of attacks on various transgender bills and letters that he said showed Allred is too extreme for Texas. Allred pushed back and said he doesn't support boys playing girls' sports and accused Cruz of trying to distract from other important issues. But he left some of the direct charges unchallenged, like why he signed a letter opposing a ban on drag shows on military bases. He likely didn't do enough to blunt the barrage of Cruz ads on the topic. In just a month's time since the ads started airing, Allred's unfavorable ratings have jumped from 28 percent to 36 percent, according to the internal Republican Senate polls.
What is next: After an hour-long debate where Allred was focused on winning over independent voters, the Dallas Congressman went to El Paso for an event with veterans on Wednesday, then headed to San Antonio for an event on Social Security tomorrow. Both are topics that appeal to independent and moderate voters. He'll then go to Round Rock in Williamson County, one of the true swing counties in Texas that backed Cruz in 2012 but switched to Beto O'Rourke in 2018. It all points to a candidate making a final push to get moderate and independent voters to get behind his campaign.
Check out more from the debate here from my colleagues Benjamin Wermund and James Osborne.
 | Jeremy Wallace, Texas politics reporter |
Who's up, who's down
Up: Donald Trump.
It must be nice to have friends who have $75 million to spare if you get in a pinch. Tech billionaire Elon Musk has now poured at least $75 million into an Austin-based political action committee that is aiming to get the former president back into the White House. While the America PAC is based in Austin, its target is turning out voters in key battlegrounds, like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Down: Colin Allred.
A new Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston survey has Ted Cruz leading the Dallas Congressman by 4 percentage points with in-person early voting set to begin on Monday. But the poll showed 3% saying they still had not made up their mind on the race.
What do you think? Hit reply and let me know.
What else is going on in Texas
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What else I'm reading
The Latin Times looks at a series of ads that a super PAC supporting Kamala Harris is releasing to try to win over Latinos. One of the ads coming out in this blitz is titled "Mi Padre," featuring an essential worker from Arizona, Maria Mercado. She reflects on her father's sacrifices and her own experience of exhausting, low-paying jobs without union protections that took her away from her family.
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