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NOAA predicts more hurricanes than it ever forecast before
By now you should know the Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1. An average season in the Atlantic hurricane region, which applies to the whole North Atlantic and not just the Gulf Coast, produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes a year.
However, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration this year is predicting that the Atlantic could see 17 to 25 named storms, 13 of which could become hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes, writes newsroom meteorologist Mary Wasson.
NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad said that is the highest the agency has ever issued for the May outlook.
The high outlook is driven by the near record-setting high-temperature waters in the Atlantic tropical zone (from the west coast of Africa to the Caribbean.) But a few more ingredients still have to come together for the forecast to come true.
Check out Mary's story to learn about other factors and new technology the National Hurricane Center will be using to track this season's weather.
 | Ryan Nickerson, Weather Reporter |
Justin's Five Day Fit Check
Photo by: Staff
We're taking a break from the five-day fit check this week because meteorologist Justin Ballard is on vacation but please be aware that this week will be hot. Like, really hot. So hot that the National Service has started to issue the city's first heat advisories of the year.
Heat advisories attempt to warn the public that excessive heat could pose a health risk, especially to those medically vulnerable to extreme temperatures, such as young children and elderly adults. Conditions also may make you more susceptible to heat-related illnesses like heat exhaustion or heatstroke.
Humidity this week will make high temperatures in the mid-90s feel more like 100 to 110 degrees.
Heat index factors in humidity to measure how the temperature really feels to the human body. The heat index takes into account how humidity makes it hard for sweat to evaporate, which is how your body cools itself down.
Disaster relief resources
On May 27, 2014, strong thunderstorms produced a wind gust of 75 mph near LaPorte, tossing debris around at a construction site and injuring 15 people.
Food and water resources
NASA recently released satellite images of what Houston looked like from space after the May 16 derecho event.
Some areas of the map have hash marks, where cloud cover prevented the satellite from capturing the area. Still, the images provide a striking visual after over a million residents lost power.
 | Ask an editor |
Occasionally, when we report about excessive heat in the summer, for instance, we'll hear this common refrain: "Houston gets hot. That's not news, what's the big deal?"
The simple response is: We know this kind of weather is familiar to Southeast Texas, but what makes it newsworthy is the increasing intensity of such weather and the consequences of more frequent intense weather events.
Take 100-degree days as an example: Last year, Houston logged 45 days of triple-digit temperatures, coming up one day shy of the all-time record of 46 set in 2011. Temperatures at Bush Intercontinental Airport, the site of Houston's main weather station, first reached 100 on June 19, and the last 100-degree day in 2023 was on Sept. 8.
According to the National Weather Service's climate data for the Houston area, which goes back nearly 130 years, triple-digit temperatures first arrive, on average, on July 19 and cease by Aug. 10, for an average window of 23 days. But in the past 30 years, as the effects of climate change have become more apparent, that average window has grown to 32 days — starting earlier on July 16 and ending later on Aug. 16.
But 100 degrees is really just a psychological threshold: What's more important are the public health and safety risks that come with such extreme heat. Yes, Houston is hot, but what makes it newsworthy is that more frequent days of extreme heat potentially threaten lives, food and water supplies and infrastructure.
-- Roberto Villalpando
Weather wonk trivia
May 2024 is likely to end with an average temperature of about 78.3 degrees. Houston's hottest May on record had an average temperature of 81.4 degrees in what year?
A) 1962
B) 1996
C) 2011
D) 2022
Meet the Team
Photo by: Susan Barber
The 713 Weather Radar newsletter is fueled by reporting from meteorologist Justin Ballard and reporter Ryan Nickerson. Texas Weather Science Editor Roberto Villalpando edits this newsletter.
You can reach out to any of them by emailing them directly at firstname.lastname@houstonchronicle.com or by replying to this email.
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