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March 04, 2024

5 hottest Texas primary races you should be watching

Plus: John Cornyn has a battle on his hands.

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Texas Take with Jeremy Wallace

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Best Races to Watch

Sure, we are missing some traditional heavyweight battles at the top of the primary ballots this year thanks to President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump marching towards a seemingly inevitable rematch.

But that doesn't mean there aren't some great races around the Great State that will tell us a lot about our state's politics. Here are 5 races I'll be watching closely tomorrow.

1. House Speaker Dade Phelan's primary battle.
I didn't think there was a chance Phelan would lose his re-election until I saw him launching TV ads and bringing former Gov. Rick Perry to Beaumont to help fight the battle. But with Trump and Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick helping businessman David Covey in what is expected to be a low-turnout election, this race has statewide implications no matter how it turns out. If Phelan survives, his relationship with Patrick will only get rougher. If he goes down, the Texas House will suddenly be shopping for a new leader for just the third time in 15 years.

2. State Rep. Steve Allison vs. Marc LaHood.
This GOP primary race will tell us a lot about Gov. Greg Abbott's revenge tour. Allison, a former Alamo Heights ISD board member, was one of the Texas House members to repeatedly oppose Abbott's school voucher program that would allow parents to use tax dollars to partially pay for private school tuition. Abbott has invested heavily in supporting LaHood and made three stops in February in San Antonio stump for him. In short, Abbott really, really wants to beat Allison to send a message in the Republican-dominated Texas House.

3. U.S. Senate showdown between Colin Allred and Roland Gutierrez.
Nine people are running in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, but the race should come down to these two. Allred, the Dallas area Congressman, has become a fundraising powerhouse who leads in most all polling I've seen. But San Antonio State Sen. Roland Gutierrez has a base of support in South Texas that could force this race into a runoff in May.

4. State Rep. Jacey Jetton vs. Ken Paxton's wrath.
Jetton faces two GOP primary opponents in a race that could show how much influence Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has versus Abbott. Insurance adjuster Matt Morgan was endorsed earlier on by Paxton just months after Jetton was among Republicans in the Texas House who voted to impeach Paxton, who was later acquitted by the Texas Senate. But the wrinkle in this race is that Jetton backed Abbott's school voucher proposal, which has Abbott campaigning for Jetton and trying to get him re-elected over Paxton's opposition.

5. Donald Trump's percentage.
The former president is a safe bet to win the GOP primary in Texas, but he's had some struggles here in the past. In 2016, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz beat him in the primary soundly. And even in 2020, Trump won the primary with 94 percent of the vote, but more than 100,000 Republicans who went to the polls didn't cast a ballot in that race. How big can he win the state?

Photo of Jeremy Wallace

Jeremy Wallace, Texas politics reporter

jeremy.wallace@houstonchronicle.com


Who's up, who's down

Who's up and who's down for Texas Take newsletter.

Up: Texas Firefighters.

An influx of hundreds of firefighters and more favorable weather conditions on Monday helped authorities in the Texas Panhandle keep the largest wildfire in state history from threatening more homes and communities. And despite all the bad political infighting of late, it was a rare moment where federal officials were pledging support to Texas. "We are standing with everyone affected by these fires," President Joe Biden said about the fires.

Down: Early voting turnout.

In a state with 30 million people, it hurts to see only 1.8 million ballots cast through early voting. That is down from the 2 million people who turned out in 2020. 

What do you think? Hit reply and let me know.


What else is going on in Texas

Senator John Thune, R-S.D., talks after a policy luncheon on Capitol Hill Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024, in Washington.

Photo by: Mariam Zuhaib, AP

South Dakota Senator challenging John Cornyn for leadership post

South Dakota Sen. John Thune is entering the race to be the next Republican leader of the U.S. Senate.

Presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks at a meet and greet at Viva Villa on Friday, Feb. 16, 2024 in San Antonio.

Photo by: Salgu Wissmath/San Antonio Express-News

Nikki Haley returns to Texas ahead of GOP primary against Donald Trump

Even though Haley has lost to former President Donald Trump in all the GOP primary contests so far, she has vowed repeatedly to stay in the race.

President Joe Biden delivers remarks about immigration and border security at the Brownsville Station.

Photo by: Cheney Orr/Getty Images

Fact check: Biden ties CHIPS bill to $640B in private investments

The president cited the figure as evidence that the legislation has boosted private sector investment in the semiconductor industry.

Travelers at San Antonio International Airport get an early start on the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday travel on Thursday, Nov. 17, 2022.

Photo by: Kin Man Hui/Staff Photographer

Castro, Roy hopeful San Antonio will get a direct flight to D.C.

Past efforts to get a direct flight from San Antonio to D.C. failed because of resistance from supporters of regulations that limit traffic to Reagan. 

People watch a test of a fire suppression system on the launch pad at SpaceX's Starbase near Boca Chica ahead of a launch attempt in November.

Photo by: Marvin Pfeiffer/Staff Photographer

Parks and Wildlife Department OKs land swap with SpaceX in South Texas

The decision authorizes giving the commercial space company 43 acres of Boca Chica State Park in exchange for 477 acres that it intends to acquire.


Pick of the day

plain share image for primary voter guide page

Photo by: Abbey Lossing

If you are heading out to vote, be sure to check out our voter guide for all the races in Houston or in San Antonio. You'll find brief biographies and links to stories about the various candidates.


What else I'm reading

Former U.S. Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz told CBS's 60 Minutes that he never spoke to President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris during his tenure. Definitely a bad look for the White House. But Ortiz also had jabs for Texas Gov. Greg Abbott for not cooperating with Border Patrol and turning those federal officers and National Guard members into pawns in a larger political game over immigration.

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