Convenience Big Store: Are ERCOT and the Texas power grid ready for winter?

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Power lines are shown near Beltway 8 the Hardy Toll Road following an overnight snowfall Monday, Feb. 15, 2021 in Houston. Temperatures plunged into the teens Monday with light snow and freezing rain. Rolling blackouts throughout the state has cut power to many.

Photo by: Brett Coomer/Staff photographer

Winter is here

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the grid operator for 90% of Texas, has been eager to assure Texans the power grid is ready for winter.

If weather conditions are normal, ERCOT and grid experts don't expect issues. But ERCOT has projected a 1-in-6 chance of outages in the highest-risk hours of January if Texas experiences another event like Winter Storm Elliott, last year's dayslong freeze over Christmas. Houston Chronicle meteorologist Justin Ballard said another storm like Elliott or Uri this winter would be unlikely, while ERCOT's chief operating officer put the odds of another Elliott at once every 10 years.

ERCOT put out a request in October for owners of shuttered natural gas and coal plants to restart their facilities, which would add up to 3,000 megawatts of electricity to the grid. That would in turn reduce the likelihood of a grid emergency this winter to less than 10% from what ERCOT's COO said was a "not acceptable" 20%. ERCOT canceled the request in late November after only getting 11.1 megawatts in offers. Still, it said it expects to have adequate resources this winter, with ERCOT's CEO calling the failed request "an extra layer of precaution."

The grid operator has since emphasized its preparedness for the winter, such as its inspections of electricity generation and transmission facilities for winter weatherization. More natural gas facilities were added to a map of critical infrastructure, which means they can't be shut off during an outage. ERCOT has also secured backup fuel for power plants in case there's a natural gas scarcity and has added additional sources of backup power.