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July 20, 2023

Paxton impeachment deliberations and flickering natural gas

Don't get too comfortable.

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Tomlinson's Take

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Paxton impeachment testimony has begun

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick will not gavel into session Attorney General Ken Paxton's impeachment trial until Sept. 5, but make no mistake; testimony is already underway.

Paxton's allies work through a political action committee called Defend Texas Liberty created by Texas's most far-right GOP donors. The PAC began providing critical evidence last month by giving Patrick, the impeachment trial's judge, a $1 million donation and a $2 million loan for his campaign fund. 

Everyone knows, after all, nothing speaks louder than the Yankee dollar.

It's unclear whether oilmen Tim Dunn and Ferris Wilks who fund Defend Texas Liberty want to reward the lite guv for his work during the just-ended legislative session or are funding his future endeavors. But it's meaningful that Patrick is not expected to run again until 2026 and will decide Paxton's fate in the fall.

Neither do we know how anyone involved in the case feels about the massive campaign contributions. Just hours before the Texas Tribune made the revelation, Patrick issued a gag order silencing the attorneys working for both sides. So no one can ask Patrick to recuse himself.

Meanwhile, Defend Texas Liberty is continuing to influence the jury made up of Texas senators. The PAC, led by former statehouse enfant terrible Jonathan Stickland, paid social media manipulator Influencable $18,000 for unspecified services.

Influenceable pays trolls on Twitter and other social media sites to promote favorable messages and create a swarm of support or opposition to specific topics. If you follow the #txlege tag on Twitter, you've likely marveled at the support for Paxton. Cat's paw strategies are difficult to trace.

Paxton's allies have two strategies for keeping their man in office. Worst-case victory is the trial goes forward, but 12 of 19 Republican senators vote to acquit. But that's a risky bet.

Their best strategy is a motion to dismiss the case on the first day. Supreme Court precedent says that in some situations, courts may not impeach an elected official for something that happened before the last election. Paxton's allies are trying to convince a simple majority of the Senate to accept this precedent and dismiss the impeachment before the evidence is revealed.

Frankly, this is the most likely outcome after Patrick accepted Defend Texas Liberty's public donation. He's sending a clear message that voters will not hold Republicans responsible for the dismissal in 2026.

Texans should remember, though, we're talking about the state's top law enforcement officer. Imagine what will happen to justice in Texas when he returns to office.

Photo of Chris Tomlinson

Chris Tomlinson, Business Columnist


What Else I'm Writing

Job seekers line up to attend a United Airlines job fair on Thursday, May 4, 2023 in Houston. There were 8,000 people registered to attend the job fair, as the airline looks to fill 2100 positions in the Houston market this year. Worldwide United is seeking to fill 50,000 jobs systemwide through 2026.

Photo by: Brett Coomer, Staff Photographer

CNBC's Texas ranking is a Rorschach test

Political views shape opinions about Texas's successes and failures.

Migrants cool themselves in the waters of the Rio Grande after crossing to the U.S. from Mexico near a site where the state is installing large buoys to be used as a border barrier along the Rio Grande near Eagle Pass, Texas, Monday, July 10, 2023. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Photo by: Eric Gay/Associated Press

GOP govs deploy troops against largest trade partner

Instead of stunts, we need to cooperate with our largest trading partner, fix our immigration process and put more people to work.


What I'm Reading

Must Read: Sinkholes near old Texas oil wells may signal issues in climate change fight (Houston Chronicle and San Antonio Express-News)

Should Read: Texas troopers told to push children into Rio Grande, deny water to migrants, records say (Houston Chronicle and San Antonio Express-News)

Interesting Read: Imagine a Renters' Utopia. It Might Look Like Vienna. (New York Times Magazine)

Technical Read: Hazed and Confused: Prenatal Pollutant Exposure and CEO Risk-Taking CEOs with greater prenatal exposure to Superfund sites take more risks, but the risks do not pay off, adversely affecting the firms' performances and the CEOs' careers.(SSRN)

Fun Read: Yes, Barbie is a feminist — just don't ask her creators (Los Angeles Times)


Question of the Week

Will the Senate and Texans hear the evidence against Paxton? Reply directly to this email and tell me your thoughts.


Mailbag

Last Week's Question: What's your highest environmental priority?

"Water, Water, Water." – John Callaghan, San Antonio

"We need to reduce waste, especially wasteful packaging in plastic." – Norma Eiman, Houston

"In my opinion, we need to protect our freshwater sources from pollutants. Because when we collectively are unable to secure our potable water for our everyday use, we will be in trouble. The people we elect to make the rules we are all supposed to live by are allowing businesses who contribute to their reelections to have an overpowering influence on the decisions they make concerning water use and the polluting runoff some of these businesses produce." – Juan J. Martinez, Houston

"Mitigating climate change." – Clark Walker, Victoria

"Highest environmental priority is water. Water resources are drying up, and lack of water will become a major cause of political upheaval." – Cheryl Adamson, Jacksonville

"I want to leave my grandchildren with a world that has a liveable climate with clean water and air but am in the dilemma that lots of people recognize. … I think it must be economically feasible for most people to change their habits acquired over a lifetime –it may take the stick of higher costs now as opposed to the carrot of a better planet some time out in the future." – Joann Thompson, San Antonio

"The highest environmental priority is to find a way to combat the avalanche of deliberate misinformation without sounding like a prissy scold and with seeming to be saying anything elitist that would turn off the people with whom we are trying, unsuccessfully at the moment, to reason." – John Reiser, Austin


The Takeaway

The Texas grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas has performed remarkably well this summer, keeping prices low despite the heat wave. But we shouldn't count our chickens too soon.

Solar and wind energy have provided a third of our electricity during the peak summer hours. Natural gas has provided more than 40 percent, with coal, nuclear and others filling in the gaps. But when it comes to keeping prices low in our competitive market, we have solar to thank because once the panels are installed, there is no fuel charge for sunlight.

Low prices are a problem for natural gas power plants. They typically make their profits when demand and prices for electricity spike and lose money the rest of the year. By keeping prices low, solar is bankrupting natural gas and making it hard to keep those plants open.

The problem for consumers will come with the next winter storm. Solar cannot keep us warm on the coldest nights. Our demand will also peak along with prices, but will the natural gas plants be there?

Corporations are developing new energy storage methods, from batteries to hydrogen to small nuclear to geothermal. But those technologies are years from replacing natural gas. The challenge for ERCOT is how to ensure those plants remain online until replacements come along.

Enjoy the cheap electricity this summer, but don't think for a minute the grid is fixed.


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