Convenience Big Store: Polls, polling and pols

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Now that early voting is underway, we're trying to figure out whether Gov. Greg Abbott's widening lead over Beto O'Rourke in public polling means the Democrat is toast, or not.

Polls and the pols who read them

1. WHAT O'ROURKE AND TRUMP HAVE IN COMMON : Both of them were underestimated by Texas polling — O'Rourke in 2018 when the polls showed him behind Sen. Ted Cruz by nine percentage points, and Trump in 2020 when October polls showed he and President Joe Biden running neck-and-neck.

Too clever by half? O'Rourke lost by 2.6 points — half the margin reported in the October polls — and Trump beat Biden in Texas by a 6-point margin. So recent polls showing Abbott with a widening lead in the governor's race are to be taken with a grain of salt.

Abbott leads by 8 to 11 points, according to four October polls. O'Rourke says he's not worried, though surveys back in June had the race at 5 to 8 percentage points.

Karl Rove gets the last word. Rove, a pre-eminent GOP strategist, calls polling "broken," but of course he still reads lots of them. His key to interpreting them: he looks for trends across polls. The widening gap between Abbott and O'Rourke is one such trend. Another trend in national polling shows independent voters moving toward Republicans in the final weeks of the midterm elections. And all of it bodes well for Abbott.

2. 3.6 MILLION WILD CARDS: Since Gov. Abbott was first elected in 2014, Texas has added 3.6 million voters to the rolls, roughly equivalent to the populations of Wisconsin and Minnesota. As political writer Jeremy Wallace reported Monday, the result is at least 1 of every 5 voters in Texas never cast a general election ballot in the Lone Star State prior to 2014.

But that doesn't mean they show up and fill out ballots. The youth vote is one of several things we'll be watching intently as exit polling data is released on election night.

More election coverage

One of Democrat Rochelle Garza's top campaign promises if elected attorney general is to create a dedicated group of attorneys within the office who would focus on civil rights.
A new poll of Harris County voters shows that Alexandra del Moral Mealer and Lina Hidalgo are neck and neck in the race for county judge as early voting begins.
Early voting began Monday. Here's everything you need to know.

3. EARLY VOTING LAUNCH: The polls opened on Monday as Abbott headed to San Antonio for a rally and O'Rourke slogged through rain in Dallas to get out the vote.

More turnout records? In the 2018 midterms, Harris County voters cast a record 1.2 million ballots. Two years later, Harris set a record for turnout in the 2020 election. That kind of energy can shift Texas politics, especially since Harris leads the state in newly registered voters, with 230,000.

Early voting ends on Nov. 4, Election Day is Nov. 8.

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